New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

NE

46%

LV

54%

Predicted winner

LV

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–30

Winner LV. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 LV
• Passing defense−0.3 NE
• Points allowed+0.2 LV
• Passing offense−0.1 NE