Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

KC

89%

HOU

11%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

83%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–24

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.9 KC
• Scoring−0.7 KC
• Rushing defense−0.5 KC
• Passing offense+0.5 HOU