Chicago Bears at New York Jets

Before kickoff

CHI

53%

NYJ

47%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–31

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 NYJ
• Passing offense−0.3 CHI
• Rushing defense+0.2 NYJ
• Passing defense−0.2 CHI