Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

BAL

66%

JAX

34%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–28

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 JAX
• Rushing defense−0.3 BAL
• Scoring−0.3 BAL
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 BAL