Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

ATL

47%

WAS

53%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

13–19

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 WAS
• Rushing defense+0.2 WAS
• Passing defense+0.2 WAS
• Passing offense−0.2 ATL