Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Before kickoff

BUF

73%

NYJ

27%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–20

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.5 BUF
• Home field+0.4 NYJ
• Offensive touchdowns−0.3 BUF
• Passing offense+0.3 NYJ