Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

WAS

31%

IND

69%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

64%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–16

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.6 IND
• Home field+0.4 IND
• Passing defense+0.2 IND
• Passing offense−0.1 WAS