Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Before kickoff

KC

52%

SF

48%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

44–23

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.4 SF
• Scoring−0.4 KC
• Home field+0.4 SF
• Offensive touchdowns−0.3 KC