Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

GB

69%

WAS

31%

Predicted winner

GB

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–23

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 WAS
• Passing defense−0.3 GB
• Interception rate−0.2 GB
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 GB