Chicago Bears at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

CHI

31%

NE

69%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

33–14

Winner CHI. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.5 NE
• Home field+0.4 NE
• Passing offense−0.3 CHI
• Rushing defense+0.3 NE