Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

DET

61%

NE

39%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

0–29

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.6 DET
• Home field+0.4 NE
• Passing defense+0.4 NE
• Points allowed−0.3 DET