Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

KC

51%

TB

49%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

44%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

41–31

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 TB
• Scoring−0.2 KC
• Points allowed−0.2 KC
• Rushing defense+0.2 TB