Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

BUF

74%

MIA

26%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–21

Winner MIA. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.5 BUF
• Scoring−0.4 BUF
• Home field+0.4 MIA
• Scoring differential−0.3 BUF