Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

BAL

42%

NE

58%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

45%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

37–26

Winner BAL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.7 NE
• Home field+0.4 NE
• Rushing defense−0.2 BAL
• Points allowed−0.2 BAL