Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

Before kickoff

CIN

43%

DAL

57%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

39%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–20

Winner DAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 DAL
• Interception rate+0.3 DAL
• Rushing defense−0.2 CIN
• Turnovers−0.1 CIN