Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals

Before kickoff

KC

48%

ARI

52%

Predicted winner

ARI

Confidence

27%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

44–21

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 ARI
• Passing defense+0.2 ARI
• Offensive touchdowns−0.1 KC
• Scoring−0.1 KC