New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

NE

27%

IND

73%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

72%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–27

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 IND
• QB yards/attempt+0.4 IND
• Passing defense−0.3 NE
• Points allowed+0.3 IND