Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

KC

42%

LAC

58%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–28

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 LAC
• Passing defense+0.3 LAC
• Rushing defense−0.3 KC
• Points allowed+0.3 LAC