Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

HOU

42%

JAX

58%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–16

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 JAX
• Rushing defense+0.4 JAX
• Turnovers−0.2 HOU
• QB yards/attempt+0.1 JAX