Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Before kickoff

ATL

42%

CAR

58%

Predicted winner

CAR

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

29–21

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 CAR
• Passing defense+0.6 CAR
• Points allowed−0.3 ATL
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 ATL