New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

NE

30%

BUF

70%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–10

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 BUF
• Scoring+0.3 BUF
• Offensive touchdowns+0.3 BUF
• Passing offense−0.2 NE