Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

IND

84%

HOU

17%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

78%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–0

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 HOU
• Scoring−0.7 IND
• Rushing defense−0.5 IND
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 IND