New York Jets at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

NYJ

33%

HOU

67%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–14

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 HOU
• Passing defense+0.2 HOU
• Rushing defense−0.2 NYJ
• QB yards/attempt+0.2 HOU