Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

ATL

57%

JAX

43%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–14

Winner ATL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 JAX
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 ATL
• Scoring−0.2 ATL
• Passing offense+0.2 JAX