New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

NE

57%

ATL

43%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–0

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 ATL
• Points allowed+0.5 ATL
• Passing defense−0.3 NE
• Scoring−0.3 NE