Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

IND

31%

BUF

69%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

41–15

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 BUF
• Passing defense+0.4 BUF
• Points allowed−0.3 IND
• Scoring+0.3 BUF