Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

DAL

45%

KC

55%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

9–19

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 KC
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 KC
• Scoring−0.2 DAL
• Turnovers−0.1 DAL