Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

BAL

63%

CHI

37%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–13

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 CHI
• Scoring−0.5 BAL
• Rushing defense−0.4 BAL
• Passing defense+0.3 CHI