Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

TB

83%

WAS

17%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

75%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–29

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 WAS
• Scoring−0.8 TB
• Passing offense+0.5 WAS
• Offensive touchdowns−0.4 TB