Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

HOU

41%

MIA

59%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

9–17

Winner MIA. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 MIA
• Rushing defense+0.5 MIA
• Passing defense−0.2 HOU
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 HOU