Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

GB

71%

KC

29%

Predicted winner

GB

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

7–13

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 KC
• Turnovers−0.5 GB
• Passing defense−0.3 GB
• Passing offense−0.3 GB