Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

TB

56%

NO

44%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–36

Winner NO. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 NO
• Passing offense+0.6 NO
• Scoring−0.4 TB
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 TB