Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

CHI

17%

TB

83%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

73%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

3–38

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.8 TB
• Home field+0.8 TB
• Passing offense−0.8 CHI
• Rushing defense+0.7 TB