Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

KC

54%

WAS

46%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

50%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–13

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 WAS
• Scoring−0.5 KC
• Offensive touchdowns−0.4 KC
• Passing offense+0.3 WAS