Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

DEN

34%

PIT

66%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–27

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 PIT
• QB yards/attempt+0.4 PIT
• Passing offense−0.1 DEN
• Offensive touchdowns+0.1 PIT