Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

IND

68%

MIA

32%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–17

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 MIA
• Passing defense−0.2 IND
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 IND
• Scoring−0.2 IND