New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Before kickoff

NE

25%

BAL

75%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

69%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–37

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential−0.5 NE
• Rest+0.4 BAL
• Win percentage+0.4 BAL
• Recent form+0.3 BAL