Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

GB

35%

KC

65%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–24

Winner GB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.5 GB
• Scoring+0.5 KC
• Offensive touchdowns+0.3 KC
• Home field+0.3 KC