New England Patriots at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

NE

85%

WAS

15%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

33–7

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Win percentage+1.2 WAS
• Scoring differential−1.2 NE
• Scoring−0.9 NE
• Rushing defense−0.7 NE