Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

IND

36%

KC

64%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–13

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.7 KC
• Win percentage−0.6 IND
• Passing offense−0.6 IND
• Scoring differential+0.4 KC