Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

ATL

24%

HOU

76%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

64%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

32–53

Winner HOU. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Win percentage−0.5 ATL
• Passing offense+0.5 HOU
• Rushing defense+0.3 HOU
• Scoring differential+0.3 HOU