New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

NE

84%

BUF

16%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–10

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.9 NE
• Scoring differential−0.9 NE
• Passing offense+0.5 BUF
• Offensive touchdowns−0.4 NE