New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

NE

79%

MIA

21%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

43–0

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential−1.4 NE
• Recent form+1.2 MIA
• Rushing defense−1.1 NE
• Scoring−0.8 NE