Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

DAL

44%

WAS

56%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

38%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–21

Winner DAL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Win percentage+0.7 WAS
• Scoring differential−0.5 DAL
• Scoring−0.4 DAL
• Recent form+0.3 WAS