San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

SF

46%

TB

54%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

29%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–17

Winner SF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing offense−0.5 SF
• Home field+0.3 TB
• Scoring+0.3 TB
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 TB