Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

KC

73%

JAX

27%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

42%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–26

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−1.6 KC
• Win percentage+0.9 JAX
• Offensive touchdowns−0.8 KC
• Passing offense+0.7 JAX