Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

HOU

26%

NO

74%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

43%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–30

Winner NO. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.5 NO
• Home field+0.3 NO
• Win percentage−0.3 HOU
• Scoring differential+0.2 NO